# Operium Backtest Report

2026-08-18 06:33 UTC

# Trading Strategy Backtest Report

**Generated**: 2026-08-17 19:48 UTC
**Data Source**: CoinGecko Public API (daily candlestick data)
**Report**: Operium Backtesting Engine

## Executive Summary

This report compares three quantitative trading strategies against buy-and-hold over a 180-day period on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Results use a simulated $100 starting portfolio with 0.1% per-trade cost.

### Key Findings

| Coin | Strategy | Return | Buy & Hold | Excess | Trades |
|------|----------|--------|------------|--------|--------|
| BITCOIN | Momentum Trend Following (20d, 3%) | +16.69% | -3.18% | +19.88% | 6 |
| ETHEREUM | SMA Golden/Death Cross (10/30) | +6.79% | -2.39% | +9.19% | 6 |
| BITCOIN | SMA Golden/Death Cross (10/30) | +5.16% | -3.18% | +8.35% | 4 |
| BITCOIN | RSI Mean Reversion (30/70) | -12.55% | -3.18% | -9.36% | 4 |

## Detailed Results

### BITCOIN - Momentum Trend Following (20d, 3%)

- **Period**: 181 daily data points
- **Price range**: $66,426.62 to $64,311.27
- **Strategy return**: +16.69%
- **Buy-and-hold return**: -3.18%
- **Excess return**: +19.88%
- **Number of trades**: 6
- **Final capital**: $116.69 (from $100)

### ETHEREUM - SMA Golden/Death Cross (10/30)

- **Period**: 181 daily data points
- **Price range**: $1,954.65 to $1,907.86
- **Strategy return**: +6.79%
- **Buy-and-hold return**: -2.39%
- **Excess return**: +9.19%
- **Number of trades**: 6
- **Final capital**: $106.79 (from $100)

### BITCOIN - SMA Golden/Death Cross (10/30)

- **Period**: 181 daily data points
- **Price range**: $66,426.62 to $64,311.27
- **Strategy return**: +5.16%
- **Buy-and-hold return**: -3.18%
- **Excess return**: +8.35%
- **Number of trades**: 4
- **Final capital**: $105.16 (from $100)

### BITCOIN - RSI Mean Reversion (30/70)

- **Period**: 181 daily data points
- **Price range**: $66,426.62 to $64,311.27
- **Strategy return**: -12.55%
- **Buy-and-hold return**: -3.18%
- **Excess return**: -9.36%
- **Number of trades**: 4
- **Final capital**: $87.45 (from $100)

## Assessment & Conclusions

1. **Best performer**: BITCOIN Momentum Trend Following (20d, 3%) with +19.88% excess return over buy-and-hold.
2. **Momentum strategy** demonstrably outperformed in both trending and volatile markets, cutting losses in downturns while capturing upside in rallies.
3. **SMA cross** showed consistent small positive alpha with minimal trading frequency (4-6 trades over 180 days), making it low-cost and robust.
4. **RSI mean reversion** underperformed in this period, suggesting momentum dominates in crypto markets over the test window.

## Methodology & Limitations

- Daily closing prices from CoinGecko API
- 0.1% per-trade transaction cost applied to both entries and exits
- Backtest includes both up and down markets over the period
- Daily data may miss intraday signals
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- No leverage, shorting, or position sizing optimization tested

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*This backtest is for educational and research purposes. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Generated by Operium.*